New Findings on Persuadable Voters in Arizona

What’s on the minds of persuadable voters in Arizona? That’s a question our professional canvassers recently asked voters in Maricopa County. Our newest report about voters in the Grand Canyon State looks at hot button issues and how voters judge the current presidential administration. 

Arizona has moved into the top tier of battleground states because of Arizona’s shifting demographic makeup and Krysten Sinema’s 2018 U.S. win. Except for Bill Clinton’s win in 1996, Arizona has backed Republican presidential candidates since 1952. Donald Trump won the state in 2016 with a plurality of the vote (48.1%), beating Hillary Clinton by 3.5% (a better performance than Obama in either of his elections).

Here’s what we learned from Arizona voters:

• When asked how they planned to vote this November, 62% of Latinx voters said they planned to cast a ballot for the Democratic nominee, while only 46% of white voters told us they would vote for Donald Trump’s opponent this fall. 
• Nearly one in four Latinx voters (23%) named education as their top issue, compared to just 10% of white voters in Maricopa County
• There was higher support for Democratic health care solutions among Latinx voters compared to white voters
• In conversations about climate, we found that more than 2 in 3 Arizonans supported the Green New Deal, including 61% of white voters.
• Our work in the 2018 elections in Arizona identified groups of voters who were remarkably responsive to our contact, particularly in Mesa. For every 100 conversations, we increased turnout by 7 votes.

The biggest takeaway from these findings is that Arizonians are up for grabs. Candidates and progressive organizations must work to engage them if they want to win. This report builds on a broader Front Porch Focus Group report released in February, which you can read here.